![]() ![]() Although Newt Gingrich’s insurgency routed the Democrats in 1994, Bill Clinton won re-election in 1996 with an enhanced margin of the popular vote. Republicans suffered significant losses in 1982, but Ronald Reagan was re-elected two years later in one of the greatest landslides in American history. Midterm elections often provide misleading signals about the subsequent presidential election. ![]() The 2018 midterm election: A leading indicator? More likely, though, Democrats will have to make a choice: Should they seek to reverse their defeat in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, which in 2016 supported the Republican nominee for the first time since 1988, or focus instead on the southern-tier states-Florida, Georgia, Texas, and Arizona-where long-time support for the Republican Party seems to have weakened in recent years? The former choice suggests picking a candidate with greater appeal to the voters who hold the balance of power in Pennsylvania and the upper Midwest while the latter suggests opting for a candidate better suited to energize the diverse coalitions characteristic of the South and Southwest. If the extraordinary voter turnout of the 2018 midterm elections is replicated in 2020, we will see the largest electorate in living memory, rendering the strategic calculations of recent decades irrelevant. In the best case, they would find a candidate with appeal just about everywhere, as they did in 2008. Florida midterm results 2018 how to#Given the party’s diverse coalition, it is anything but surprising that Democrats disagree about how to achieve a different outcome in 2020. ![]()
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